Define Disruption: Changing the Tires On a Moving Car

摘要

Not surprisingly, our quarterly Baird cover story confirms both leading indicators as well as what we're hearing anecdotally from distribution executives. The first quarter showed signs of weakness compared to the previous quarter for most distributors, but still good growth overall, and a continued optimistic outlook. That dovetails with consensus business economists' outlook for a continued slowing through 2019 and a trough likely pushing into 2020. Of course, this is where you can insert the paraphrase, probably tracing back to Will Rogers or perhaps even Mark Twain, that anyone who tries to predict the date of a recession is either an economist, a politician, a liar or a fool -or some combination of all four.