Analysis 4 The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles 2019-2028

摘要

Air-to-air missiles have had little chance to shine in the last decade or so. The fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Libya offered few opportunities for combat aircraft to engage in aerial duels. All of these conflicts saw ample use of air power, but no significant aerial combat engagements. So far, U.S. and allied interventions in Iraq and Syria are following this pattern.The U.S. and allied countries began a new operation in the Middle East as the Islamic State militant group threatened to overrun large areas of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State (also known as ISIS) has no air force, despite reports that defecting Syrian pilots are now flying for the militants. As was the case in Libya, the international intervention force has established air superiority over both Iraq and Syria.The Syrian Air Force is staying far away from areas where U.S. and allied combat aircraft are active. Furthermore, Syria's ground-based air defense forces are not challenging allied aircraft. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sees this anti-ISIS operation as benefitting his teetering regime.This situation could change as the ISIS threat fades and the opposition refocuses its energy on toppling Assad's government. Syria's remaining combat aircraft and ground-based air defense systems would not last long against a combined onslaught of foreign air power.The establishment of a no-fly zone over Syria could quickly lead to the collapse of the Assad regime as well.Over the next 10 years, demand for air-to-air missiles will remain strong, spurred by sales of fighter aircraft around the world. The dominant systems for the next 10 years will be Raytheon's short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder and its medium-range AIM-120 AMRAAM. Together, these missiles will win the majority of orders in this market through 2028.Nevertheless, Europe is attempting to challenge the dominance of these systems. MBDA is developing the Meteor, a medium-range AAM. The company plans to use the Meteor as its main weapon in a campaign to unseat Raytheon as the world's top provider of air-to-air missiles.With regard to the short-range AAM market, Europe's potential entry is the Common Anti-air Modular Missile-Airborne (CAMM-A). This missile could replace the ASRAAM and MICA-IR, as well as meet certain ground-based air defense requirements. The ASRAAM 2 production line represents the forecast for this missile.Development of the IRIS-T is the responsibility of an international group headed by Diehl Defence. Airbus Defence had wanted Diehl Defence to join MBDA. Diehl (80 percent) and Airbus (20 percent) own the company; however, Diehl has been reluctant to become part of the European megacorp, fearing that its unique corporate identity would vanish within such a large organization.Without greater cooperation between these firms, as well as the integration of these missiles with non-European aircraft (e.g., U.S. combat fighters), Europe will not be able to challenge the AIM-9X Sidewinder's anticipated domination of this market segment.Likewise, the Russian Federation will have no significant effect on this market for some time. Moscow will win export orders from nations such as Algeria, Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, and Yemen. However, declining spending at home and rampant corruption are handicapping the efforts of Russian defense firms to expand their market share.On the periphery of this market, new participants are beginning to make their presence known. Denel Dynamics of South Africa is working with Brazil to develop a new short-range air-to-air missile. The company hopes this joint effort will win export orders from countries in Latin America and Asia.Conclusion. Over the next 10 years, Forecast International projects that more than 51,000 air-to-air missiles will be produced. The value of this production is expected to be $20.9 billion (in 2018 U.S. dollars), with Raytheon and MBDA taking the lead. The effect on the market of companies located in China, Japan, Israel, South Africa, Taiwan, and elsewhere will be minimal. These firms will have the greatest impact within their particular regions.Overall, production will climb at the beginning of the forecast, dropping off for a time, but ending higher than at the start of the period. A steady increase will occur in the value of this market, which will rise from $1.8 billion in 2019 to $2.1 billion by 2028.