Executive Summaries

摘要

Since the first roadside bomb exploded in June 2003, the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) emerged as one of the defining characteristics of Operation Iraqi Freedom. This article addresses the possible relationships between the tactical patterns of the Coalition Force (CF) and the Threat's selection of the time and place for an intended IED attack. The developed methodology allows for consideration of a large set of time-dependent factors, determines which factors have influence, and uses logistic regression to determine the extent of those influences within the context of a larger system of influences. These models show that CF presence influences the emplacement of IEDs but these interactions may vary significantly by area and time period, reflecting the changing battlespace. The resulting models enable analysis of the impact on IED incidents of other variables of interest and allow for predictions that inform planning of future operations.