Application of evidence theory to quantify uncertainty in hurricane/typhoon track forecasts

摘要

In the paper, a new technique to quantify the accuracy of models for weather prediction in forecasting tracks of tropical cyclones using the available best track database is presented. Also a new approach to quantify and improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts where no best track positions are available is suggested. Both techniques rely on the mathematical tools of evidence theory, which are customized here for application to total uncertainty in track forecasts.