Maritime safety analysis in retrospect

摘要

Maritime safety has undergone considerable change in the past decades, particularly in its improved approach to risk quantification analysis. This article reviews the challenges of maritime safety analysis and the different approaches used to quantify the risks in maritime transportation. Formal safety assessment (FSA) is examined with a focus on its deficiencies, and its recent developments are described at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) level. The possible applications of FSA in maritime security and piracy analysis are discussed given its growing impacts on safety at sea. Some new uncertainty and risk modelling techniques are also presented to demonstrate how risk quantification analysis facilitates the transformation of maritime safety culture from a reactive prescriptive scheme towards a proactive goal-setting regime.