Competitive strategy and industry contagion following traditional Chapter 11 bankruptcy announcements

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of bankruptcy announcements on the bankrupt firm's competitors' stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - Starting with a sample of Chapter 11 bankruptcies from 1980 through 2008, the authors use event study methodology to examine the returns of bankrupt firm's rivals around the filing date. The authors employ a t-test of means across groups to check for differences in returns based on a competitive strategy measure (CSM). The CSM classifies industry rivals into strategic complements or substitutes. The authors also separate the sample based on traditional or non-traditional bankruptcies and conduct explanatory regressions on the abnormal returns using economically important independent variables such as the CSM, leverage and the Herfindahl index. Findings - Similar to previous research, the paper finds that less concentrated industries and industries with high leverage suffer greater negative wealth effects when a firm within the industry announces a bankruptcy. Extending current research, the paper finds strategic interaction within the industry is an important factor in determining industry portfolio returns. Rivals characterized as strategic complements exhibit significant negative valuation effects while rivals characterized as strategic substitutes do not. Finally, the paper finds that this strategic effect is dominant when the future cash flows and outcome of the reorganization is more uncertain as substantiated by the difference between traditional and non-traditional bankruptcy filings. Originality/value - This is believed to be the first empirical article to examine how the CSM affects the returns of bankrupt firms' rivals.