Trade Slump Hits Shipping

摘要

The sheer scale of the economic and trade slowdown means it is hardly surprising that major shipping markets are suffering and likely to continue to do so, despite some short-term volatility. Even with the increased scrapping, cancellations and postponements of deliveries, the global fleet will grow strongly this year and in 2010. This means surplus tonnage will continue to rise, keeping pressure on freight rates and charter rates. Based on the most optimistic recent economic forecasts with modest growth resuming in 2010, overtonnaging is likely to extend some time into the future until the current backlog of orders, even allowing for substantial cancellations and deferrals, are played out. According to estimates from class society DNV, the surplus could reach 10,000 ships or even higher. Depending on the speed of global economic recovery it is likely to take until 2013 or 2014 for tonnage supply to return to some approximate balance overall, although the situation will vary in different market segments.