Engineering Risks and Failures: Lessons Learned from Environmental Disasters

摘要

Recent disasters have highlighted the difficulties in assessing and managing risks and the types of failure that can occur in extreme circumstances. The means of characterizing and preparing for disasters can vary widely, even among engineers. Thus, clarity is required in communicating how scientific principles are applied in preventing and responding to disasters. This paper discusses lessons learned from environmental and other disasters regarding risk assessment and management, including the role of perception, and five types of failure that may occur during a disaster: miscalculations, extraordinary natural circumstances, critical path, negligence, and inaccurate prediction of contingencies. Examples from past disasters are used to illustrate these concepts.