A Quantity-Based Method to Predict More Accurate Project Completion Time

摘要

'Completion in time' is a crucial element of project management. Previous studies show that earned value management (EVM), earned schedule method, or earned duration management do not give an accurate project completion time estimation (PCTE) because of theoretical weaknesses. Inaccurate PCTE may provide misleading information, so that the project manager cannot take effective schedule control actions timely, and thus it results in failure of project time management. To improve the above-mentioned problem, this research proposes a quantity-based project duration estimating method (Q-PDEM), which calculates the PCTE using the de facto work quantities and the updated productivity information of activities. The results of two case studies show that the proposed Q-PDEM gives a 7.55% better mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the existing methods for predicted project completion duration for Case Ⅰ, and 24.54% for Case Ⅱ. It is concluded that the proposed Q-PDEM gives a more accurate estimation of the time for project completion and allows more effective control of the project schedule.