Nested Logit Joint Model of Travel Mode and Travel Time Choice for Urban Commuting Trips in Xi'an, China

摘要

Commuter trips are an important part of urban travel, and studying the influencing factors, changing rules, and choice behaviors of urban commuting trips is of great significance for optimizing the urban trip structure. This paper utilizes a nested logit model to investigate commuters' joint choice behavior of commuting time and mode by considering factors including socioeconomic, household, and trip characteristics. Two possible decision-making model structures are proposed: the commuting time-mode structure (time choice is the upper level) and the commuting mode-time structure (mode choice is the upper level). A model specification is conducted in SPSS based on the data of Xi'an urban commuters, and the commuting time-mode structure is demonstrated as the appropriate one by judging the inclusive value of each nest. It indicates that commuters often choose a commuting mode based on commuting time, and the commuting time-mode model is more suitable for fitting commuters' travel choice. The higher the household income, the greater the probability of commuting by taxi or driving alone. Commuting distance strongly and negatively influences mode choice, including walking, bicycling, bus, and taxi. Civil servants, medical staff, teachers, and technical staff are more sensitive to commuting time than are other commuters. Commuters who usually go to work by driving alone may turn to a bus when a car is not available. Increasing total household bicycle ownership will bring competition between bicycle and bus and enhance commuters' willingness to bike to work, especially when the cycling time is above 30 min.