Use of Dynamic Panel Cointegration Approach to Model International Arrivals to Australia

摘要

The aim of this article is to use dynamic panel data cointegration technique to determine elasticities of tourist arrivals to Australia, using income, real exchange rates, and airfares as demand determinants. Annual data from 1991 to 2007 for arrivals from the 10 main markets are used. Previous studies that applied dynamic panel data sets in the tourism context have used the Arellano-Bond estimation technique. Because this technique produces biased and inconsistent estimates in samples with a small time span, this article uses the corrected least square dummy variable technique to generate unbiased and efficient parameter estimates. The results obtained show that demand is inelastic with respect to its determinants in the short run and elastic in the long run.The main implications of these results are that maintaining destination price competitiveness and consumer satisfaction should be rated very high in the priorities of the Australian tourism industry.