Random parameter probit models to analyze pedestrian red-light violations and injury severity in pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes at signalized crossings

摘要

Pedestrian red-light violations at signalized crossings are an important traffic safety concern, particularly in densely populated cities. In this study, the authors quantitatively investigated the factors associated with pedestrian red-light violations and injury severity resulting from pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes at signalized crossings. Random parameter probit models are used to account for individual-specific heterogeneity that arises from a set of unmeasured factors related to traffic conditions and the pedestrians' physical and mental status. Data for the analysis are based on the historical crash record maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. Children younger than age 11 years are not only associated with a higher likelihood of pedestrian red-light violations but also tend to have a higher probability of severe injuries. Factors including summer, dual carriageways with a central traffic island, and pedestrian age of 12 to 25 years are solely related to a higher likelihood of pedestrian red-light violations; meanwhile, variables solely associated with a higher probability of severe injuries include crashes that occur between 22:00 and 06:59, crashes occurring in rainy weather, crashes involving pedestrians older than age 46 years, and bus crashes. Appropriate countermeasures are recommended to curb pedestrian red-light violations and to reduce the injury severity of pedestrian crashes.