Research on a Short-Range Prediction Model for Track Irregularity over Small Track Lengths

摘要

Based on analysis of some existing prediction methods and models for track irregularities, according to the characteristics of track irregularity development for China railroad, this paper has proposed a short-range prediction model (SRPM) which applies the calculus thinking and method to estimate track irregularities over small track lengths on a single-day basis using track waveform data generated by track geometry car. We applied the SRPM to make predictions for track irregularities of many unit track sections of the up-going tacks of Beijing-Shanghai Railway Line (Jing-Hu Line) using the past two-year waveform data of this railway line. To confirm the efficiency of the SRPM, we compared the actual and estimated irregularities in both time and railway distance dimensions. The comparison shows that the SRPM can accurately predict track irregularities of unit track sections along Jing-Hu Railway Line on each day within a future short period.