Prospects for geographical research on alternative-fuel vehicles

摘要

Skyrocketing demand in China. Peak oil. Global warming. Instability in the Middle East. Urban sprawl. The need for alternatives to petrol-powered transport is clear. Alternative fuels include compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG or propane), ethanol (E85), electric, biodiesel, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and gas-electric hybrids. Before delving into what geographers have contributed and could contribute to this field, we might want to ask if it is even worth researching. While this is one of the research questions geographers should be asking, I begin with some official predictions—but only as ballpark estimates. The US Energy Information Administration (2005) predicts alternative-fuel use, led by ethanol and LPG, could grow from 1.7% to 2.2% of light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy use from 2003 to 2025, displacing 280,000 barrels per day. Diesel's share could grow from 1.5% to 4.4%. By 2025, 3.8 million advanced-technology LDVs could be sold per year in the US, almost 20% of the total market, with alcohol/flexible-fuel vehicles, hybrids, and advanced diesels each topping one million. Nearly 80% of these sales, however, are predicated on Federal and State regulations. Worldwide, the International Energy Agency predicts diesel's share of LDV energy use to grow from 8% in 2000 to 14% in 2050, and biofuels to grow to 3%. These scenarios, however, reflect business-as-usual futures (Fulton and Eads, 2004).