Monte Carlo Approach to FIAT Uncertainties with Applications for Mars Science Laboratory

摘要

A new scriptedMonte Carlo analysis software tool has been developed for use with the fully implicit ablation andnthermal response program thermal-protection-system-sizing code. This paper describes the new software tool andngives examples of its increased utility and useful insights onmany aeroshell heatshield design considerations, such asnmaximum bond line temperature, recession, isotherm depth, surface temperature, and char depth. Finally, resultsnare presented that illustrate the effect of uncertainties in key parameters that were used in the Mars SciencenLaboratory aeroshell thermal protection system design. The parameters having the greatest influence on bond linentemperature dispersion for theMars Science Laboratory backshell are virginmaterial thermal density (34%), initialnmaterial temperature (20%), virgin material conductivity (17%), and char density (13%).