The growth of China's technology transfer industry over the next decade: implications for global markets

摘要

China has moved mightily over the last 30 years to increase its capacity to develop indigenous technology to invigorate its industrial base and shift it from the world's factory to the world's developer and manufacturer of products. To achieve this requires buttressing an emerging intellectual property system, increasing university research while encouraging scientists to patent and commercialize their discoveries. Additionally, the development of a functioning and agile venture capital system to invest in these new technologies, coupled with liquid equity markets for consummating IPO's have been developed in record time. Will these remarkable efforts be sufficient to allow China to dominate the technology transfer market domestically or internationally over the next 10 years? The conclusions are twofold: on one hand, China undoubtedly will become the world's largest customer for technology transfers both domestically and internationally, but global leadership in new technology development and licensing from research institutions is unlikely to be achieved over the next 10 years. Foreign firms, especially those within the US or with strong ties to the US are most likely to dominate this sector due to the US' s comprehensive university network coupled with its well established IP technology transfer industry.