Seal dynamics on the Swedish west coast: Scenarios of competition as Baltic grey seal intrude on harbour seal territory

摘要

The Kattegat-Skagerrak region on the Swedish west coast is home to an abundant harbour seal population (Phoca vitulina) and a small scattered grey seal population (Halichoerus grypus). In addition, grey seal from the growing population in the Baltic Sea frequently migrate into the Kattegat-Skagerrak. Harbour seals on the west coast of Sweden show relatively high population growth (approximately 9%) compared to the Baltic grey seal in ice-free habitats (approximately 6%), which, in theory, makes harbour seal the stronger competitor of the two in this region. However, incidents of disease in harbour seals that lower population growth are becoming more frequent. These epidemics are primarily caused by the Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV), and may reduce population size with up to 70%. This study models the average development under potential scenarios of competing harbour- and Baltic grey seal populations using Leslie matrices and the Lotka-Volterra model of inter-specific competition. The model is parameterised with previously published data, and resource overlap is incorporated through density dependent pup survival. Using numerical methods short- and long-term abundances are simulated under weak, moderate and strong competition and for different frequencies of PDV epidemics. Results show that the harbour seals are resilient to competition while exerting a negative effect on grey seal abundance under moderate to strong competition. Hence Baltic grey seal benefit from weaker levels of competition. Under moderate and strong competition grey seal abundance is a direct function of the PDV frequency as this reduces the competitive strength of harbour seals. Theoretically this means that higher frequencies of PDV or other pathogens epidemics could facilitate an expansion of Baltic grey seal into Kattegat-Skagerrak. Independent of interaction strength and frequency of epidemics the projected changes to abundances are slow (50-100 years), and even in exceedingly stable populations very long time-series of population size estimates are necessary to determine interaction strength. From a management perspective, a more permanent grey seal population in Kattegat-Skagerrak is likely to increase the predation pressure on overfished regional cod populations, and also lead to higher prevalence of the cod parasite Pseudoterranova decipiens, which uses grey seal as end host. From a population ecology perspective, abundant Baltic grey seal in this region would facilitate the mixing of grey seals from the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea, with unknown implications for the genetically divergent Baltic population.