Non-linear and Dysfunctional Development Path of Information and Communication Technology: Cultural Conflicts

摘要

Suggests that a non linear path may exist for the development of ICT reflecting late entrants having access directly to the later stages achieved in the mature entrants. This access allows late entrants to 1leapfrog' the earlier stages offering increased choice in the development path and creating non linear path way. In addition the incrementalist model fails to recognize that unsuccessful developments in ICT may result in more than the delay of adoption of the next stage. Negative experiences may lead to retrosteps, consolidating positive achievements in previously adopted stages. The paper hypothesizes that the linear model fails to explain the historic development and further fails to provide a predictive model of future developments.