Motorcyclists' self-reported riding mileage versus actual riding mileage in the following year

摘要

Introduction: Accurate motorcyclist mileage estimates are important because self-evaluation of riding experience is related to riding behavior, the relationship of self-reported to actual or future mileage is necessary in targeting training and considering survey responses, and motorcycle crash statistics require accurate travel data. Method: This study collected real-world data from motorcyclists over the course of two months to two years per rider. This paper explores motorcyclists' self-reported annual riding mileage (obtained via pre-study surveys) and the actual amount of riding during the study (based upon odometer readings and GPS data). Results: Of the 91 riders who had been riding for at least a year before the study, significantly more (73%) rode less the following year than reported for the previous year. The recorded annualized mileage averaged 89% of the reported mileage from the previous year. Analyses based on estimated average annual mileage were similar to those using the previous year estimation, and the pattern held regardless of age group, motorcycle type, or gender. The exception was novice or returning riders, who tended to either significantly underestimate or increase actual mileage as they began (or continued) to ride. Conclusions: Motorcyclists' estimation of riding experience expressed as mileage may not be indicative of current or future mileage. Practical applications: Reliance on self-reported mileage during training to categorize groups, for interpretation of studies, or to develop motorcycle travel data and safety statistics may be unrealistic. Certainly any use of self-reported mileage should incorporate the concept that mileage overestimation seems likely. Because questions about previous year and average annual mileage may elicit similar responses, motorcyclist surveys should be constructed to prompt the most thoughtful responses in terms of mileage estimations. In general, reported mileage should not be relied upon as an accurate predictor of future actual mileage. (C) 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.