Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform

摘要

To analyze prospects for Ukraine's economic growth and a program of reforms, we construct two macroeconometric models—high frequency with monthly observations, and low frequency with annual observations. In search of consistent information, we critically examine available statistics including World Development Indicators for Ukraine. We generate several forecasts using the technique of importing key variables from a high frequency solution into the low frequency model, thus incorporating recent changes in economic trends. We simulate the model to perform policy analysis of the effectiveness of restructuring Ukraine's energy sector with raising tariffs and implementing the pension reform.