On the Extreme Value Analysis of the Response of a Turret Moored FPSO

摘要

One of the standardized procedures used in the design of floating systems and their mooring and production lines is the so-called short-term design approach where the system is analyzed for some specific extreme environmental conditions. Along with this procedure, a nonlinear time-domain coupled dynamic analysis, considering the floater and its risers and mooring lines, can nowadays be incorporated as a feasible part of the design practice. One very important and challenging aspect of this process is concerned with the estimation of the characteristic short-term extreme values of the system response parameters based on the sampled time-series. In this paper a common procedure used to establish these extreme values for floater system response parameters, which is based upon a Wei-bull distribution model for the peaks of the time-series, is reviewed in the light of a recently proposed approach based on a general parametric model for the average conditional exceedance rate of peaks. It is shown that the former model corresponds to a particular case of the latter one. Numerical results are presented for the response parameters of a turret-moored Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit considering a short-term coupled analysis of the whole system under an extreme environmental condition of wind, wave, and current. Specifically, the extreme response of surge motion, top tension of the most loaded mooring line, and Det norske Veritas (DnV) codes utilization factor for the most critical section of an 0.20 m outer diameter SLWR (steel lazy wave riser) are investigated.