Analytic computation of nonparametric Marsan-Lengline estimates for Hawkes point processes

摘要

In 2008, Marsan and Lengline presented a nonparametric way to estimate the triggering function of a Hawkes process. Their method requires an iterative and computationally intensive procedure which ultimately produces only approximate maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) whose asymptotic properties are poorly understood. Here, we note a mathematical curiosity that allows one to compute, directly and extremely rapidly, exact MLEs of the nonparametric triggering function. The method here requires that the number q of intervals on which the nonparametric estimate is sought equals the number n of observed points. The resulting estimates have very high variance but may be smoothed to form more stable estimates. The performance and computational efficiency of the proposed method is verified in two disparate, highly challenging simulation scenarios: first to estimate the triggering functions, with simulation-based 95% confidence bands, for earthquakes and their aftershocks in Loma Prieta, California, and second, to characterise triggering in confirmed cases of plague in the United States over the last century. In both cases, the proposed estimator can be used to describe the rate of contagion of the processes in detail, and the computational efficiency of the estimator facilitates the construction of simulation-based confidence intervals.