A Generic Simulation Model to Manage a Vaccination Program

摘要

The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how a computer model can be used as a decision making tool regarding vaccination programs. These programs include vaccination against traditional influenza, avian influenza, H1N1 (swine flu), or other diseases. Specifically, the proposed simulation model is used to investigate the impact of herd immunity, to estimate the vaccination rate for which a given disease is placed into an endemic state, and to calculate the overall cost of a vaccination program from a societal perspective. In addition, the tool can help to define an optimal vaccination rate which will result in the minimum overall cost for a vaccination program. The paper demonstrates several advantages of simulation over other decision making methods. Simulation is used to “mimic” the behavior of the disease, test a range of alternative solutions for different scenarios, and to finely adjust the model and reflect possible vaccination scenarios.