Uncovered interest parity and monetary integration in East Asian countries based on China

摘要

This study applies a nonlinear threshold unit-root test to investigate the nonstationary properties of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) with risk premium for eight East Asian countries relative to China. We find that the nonlinear threshold unit-root test has greater power than the linear method, if the true data generating process of risk premium convergence is a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of UIP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that UIP holds true for five countries based on China. Our findings highlight that capital mobility, exchange rate market efficiency and monetary integration are nonlinear in these East Asian countries.