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Integration of Financial Markets in SAARC Countries: Evidence Based on Uncovered Interest rate Parity Hypothesis

机译:南盟国家金融市场一体化:基于未披露利率平价假设的证据

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摘要

This paper examines interest rate linkages among four SAARC countries vis-a-vis United State using monthly data over the period 1990M1 to 2006M3. The emperical findings suggest the existance of single cointegrating vector between SAARC countries interest rates and US interest rate. The result further suggest that except India, the coefficient restriction for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are met segnificantly. However, in the case of India, the coefficient associated with foreign interest rate is far from the predicted value of UIP.The adjustment coefficient indicate no two ways causility. We also impemented the cointegration test within the SAARC countries. The test results suggest the existance of the one cointegrating vector.the existance of one cointegrating vector indicates the low degree of money markets integration in the region. Moreover, in the long run except Indian interest rate, other interest rates exerted positive impact on Pak-interest rate. Short Run Error Correction model is also estimated. the results suggest that Pakistani, Indian and Sri Lankan interest rates act as equlibrating factors in the long run, while no dynamic interaction between Pak-interst rate and Bangladesh-interest rate have been seen so far.
机译:本文使用1990M1到2006M3期间的月度数据研究了四个SAARC国家与美国之间的利率联系。经验发现表明,南盟国家利率与美国利率之间存在单一协整向量。结果进一步表明,除印度外,巴基斯坦,斯里兰卡和孟加拉国的系数限制都得到了很好的满足。但是在印度,与外国利率相关的系数与UIP的预测值相差甚远。调整系数表明没有两种因果关系。我们还对南盟国家内部的协整测试进行了强加。测试结果表明存在一个协整向量。一个协整向量的存在表明该地区货币市场的整合程度较低。此外,从长远来看,除印度利率外,其他利率也对北韩利率产生了积极影响。还估计了短期误差校正模型。结果表明,从长远来看,巴基斯坦,印度和斯里兰卡的利率是均衡因素,而迄今为止,北巴基斯坦利率与孟加拉国利率之间没有动态相互作用。

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