Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility

摘要

We explore the possibility of structural breaks in the daily realized volatility of the Deutschemark/Dollar, Yen/Dollar and Yen/Deut-schemark spot exchange rates with observed long memory behavior. We find that structural breaks in the mean can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility. We propose a VAR-RV-Break model that provides superior predictive ability when the timing of future breaks is known. With unknown break dates and sizes, we find that a VAR-RV-I(d) long memory model provides a robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks.