Integration of an evolutionary algorithm into the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter for hydrologic data assimilation

摘要

Data assimilation (DA) methods continue to evolve in the design of streamflow forecasting procedures. Critical components for efficient DA include accurate description of states, improved model parameterizations, and estimation of the measurement error. Information about these components are usually assumed or rarely incorporated into streamflow forecasting procedures. Knowledge of these components could be gained through the generation of a Pareto-optimal set - a set of competitive members that are not dominated by other members when compared using evaluation objectives. This study integrates Pareto-optimality into the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the particle filter (PF). Comparisons are made between three methods: evolutionary data assimilation (EDA) and methods based on the integration of Pareto-optimality into the EnKF (ParetoEnKF) and into the PF (ParetoPF). The methods are applied to assimilate daily streamflow into the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model in the Spencer Creek watershed in Canada. The updated members are applied to forecast streamflows for up to 10 days ahead, where forecasts for 1 day, 5 day and 10 day lead times are compared to observations. The results show that updated estimates are similar for all three methods. An evaluation of updated members for multi-step forecasting revealed that EDA had the highest forecast accuracy compared to ParetoEnKF and ParetoPF, which have similar accuracies.