As time went by - why is the long wave so long?

摘要

Since the end of the expansionary period after the Second War, the world economy went through a long period of mediocre growth with a major recession in 2009 and another in 2020. This period is examined following As Time Goes By, the last contribution by Chris Freeman, with the cooperation of this co-author. As a long period of readjustment after the beginning of a structural crisis is imposed by the mismatch between the capabilities of the emerging techno-economic paradigm and the socio-institutional framework, my argument is that the duration of this transition is explained by the difficult process of replacing a successful institutional setting, that which supported the post-War expansion, by the new accumulation regime that is being constituted. Instead of most of the literature on long waves, which tries to uncover some mechanics of succession of radical technological innovations, this paper addresses different questions: how does the socio-institutional adaptation proceed, and how relevant is this process to explain the length of the downswing since the turning point of the 1970s. In order to investigate such process of readjustment, the conditions for the new rule of financial accumulation are discussed, including the forms and duration of the process of selection, reproduction, and education of the elite, and changes in institutions, norms, and social networks.