A new comparison of marine dispersion model performances for Fukushima Dai-ichi releases in the frame of IAEA MODARIA program

摘要

A detailed intercomparison of marine dispersion models applied to the releases from Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant was carried out in the frame of MODARIA program, of the IAEA. Models were compared in such a way that the reasons of the discrepancies between them can be assessed (i.e., if they are due to the hydrodynamic part, the dispersion part, and the ultimate reasons). A sequential chain of dispersion exercises was carried out with this purpose. The overall idea is to harmonize models, making them run with the same forcing in a step-by-step procedure, in such a way that the main agent in producing discrepancy between models can be found. It was found that the main reason of discrepancies between models is due to the description of the hydrodynamics. However, once this has been suppressed, some variability between model outputs remains due to intrinsic differences between models (as numerical schemes). The numerical experiments were carried out for a perfectly conservative radionuclide and for Cs-137 (including water/sediment interactions). Model outputs for this radionuclide were also compared with measurements in water and sediments. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.