Probabilistic biosphere modeling for the long-term safety assessment of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste using first- and second- order Monte Carlo simulation

摘要

In the present paper, deterministic as well as first- and second-order probabilistic biosphere modeling approaches are compared. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the influence of the probability distribution function shape (empirical distribution functions and fitted lognormal probability functions) representing the aleatory uncertainty (also called variability) of a radioecological model parameter as well as the role of interacting parameters are studied.