Monitoring drought dynamics in China using Optimized Meteorological Drought Index (OMDI) based on remote sensing data sets

摘要

Timely and accurate monitoring of the spatiotemporal changes in drought is very important for the reduction in the social losses caused by drought. The Optimized Meteorological Drought Index (OMDI), originally established in southwestern China, showed great potential for drought monitoring over large regions on a large scale. However, the applicability of the index requires further evaluation, especially when used throughout China, which has a different agricultural divisions, variable climatic conditions, complex terrain and diverse land cover. In addition, the OMDI model relies on training data to construct local parameters for the model. On a large scale, it is of great significance to use multisource remote sensing data sets to construct OMDI model parameters. In this paper, the constrained optimization method was used to establish weights for the MODIS-derived Vegetation Conditional Index (VCI), TRMM-derived Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), and GLDAS-derived Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) and calculate the OMDI based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and weather stations. The accuracy of the OMDI model was evaluated by using the correlation coefficient. Moreover, the spatiotemporal changes in drought were also analyzed through trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) statistics and the Hurst index on the monthly and annual scales. The results showed that (1) the highest positive correlation between the OMDI and the SPI was SPI-1, which was higher than that for any other month interval, such as 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months of the SPI. The results indicated that the OMDI was suitable to monitor meteorological drought. (2) In the nine agricultural subareas in China, the degree of drought in the Yangtze River (DYR) area had the most severe evolution and change frequency. This region was very sensitive to drought in the past two decades. (3) The area with OMDI variation coefficient less than 0.1 accounted for 94%, indicating that the degree of drought fluctuates little; The linear tendency rate is 0.0004, and the area greater than 0 reaches 66.44%, indicating that the drought is developing in a lightning trend. (4) The Hurst index value is mostly higher than 0.5 (the area ratio is 56.31%), and the area of "Positive-Consistent" and "Negative- Opposite" accounted for 54.02%, indicating that more than half of China's area drought changes will show a trend of mitigation in the future.