Expert knowledge-based assessment of farming practices for different biotic indicators using fuzzy logic

摘要

The study presented here describes a modeling approach for the ex-ante assessment of farming practices with respect to their risk for several single-species biodiversity indicators. The approach is based on fuzzy-logic techniques and, thus, is tolerant to the inclusion of sources of uncertain knowledge, such as expert judgment into the assessment. The result of the assessment is a so-called Index of Suitability (IS) for the five selected biotic indicators calculated per farming practice. Results of IS values are presented for the comparison of crops and for the comparison of several production alternatives per crop (e.g., organic vs. integrated farming, mineral vs. organic fertilization, and reduced vs. plow tillage). Altogether, the modeled results show that the different farming practices can greatly differ in terms of their suitability for the different biotic indicators and that the farmer has a certain scope of flexibility in opting for a farming practice that is more in favor of biodiversity conservation. Thus, the approach is apt to identify farming practices that contribute to biodiversity conservation and, moreover, enables the identification of farming practices that are suitable with respect to more than one biotic indicator.