Stochastic techno-economic analysis of power-to-gas technology for synthetic natural gas production based on renewable H_2 cost and CO_2 tax credit

摘要

Power-to-gas (P2G) has been proposed as an innovative energy storage system for a long period of time to manage unbalanced electricity generated from renewable energy. Here we report economic feasibility studies and uncertainty analysis of P2G technology for synthetic natural gas (SNG) production in Korea. Economic analysis in terms of itemized cost estimation was carried out based on capital cost and operating cost, and then a unit SNG production cost of 0.094 USD kWh(-1) was obtained for a SNG production capacity of 700 m(3) h(-1), which is still higher than a conventional natural gas price in Korea (0.038(similar to)0.069 $ kWh(-1)). With a Monte-Carlo simulation method, uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the possible changes in a unit SNG production cost and a net present value due to fluctuating the renewable H-2 cost (1.84(similar to)2.76 USD kg(H2)(-1)), CO2 capture cost (48(similar to)111 USD ton(CO2)(-1)), and CO2 tax credit (16(similar to)24 USD ton(CO2)(-1)) as a tool of quantifying risks associated with a premature P2G technology. The analysis confirmed the economical infeasibility of P2G technology in Korea requiring significant advancement in P2G technology and stability in CO2 tax credit and also suggesting a future drive for the detailed analysis of environmental impacts considering the life cycle of produced SNG.