Constructing macroeconomic performance index of Indian states using DEA

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to construct a robust macroeconomic performance (MEP) index of the State economies of an emerging market economy, i.e. India. Design/methodology/approach - Two variants of data envelopment analysis (DEA) models -radial and non-radial - are proposed to construct the macroeconomic policy performance of 22 Indian State economies in the post-economic reforms era covering the period: 1994-1995 to 2001-2002, using three macroeconomic indicators: growth in gross state domestic product, price stability, and fiscal deficit. Findings - The authors' three broad empirical findings are: first, the radial and non-radial DEA models yield significantly different rankings of State economies in terms of their MEP index scores; second, as against the use of only growth in gross state domestic product and price stability for MEP measure, the inclusion of fiscal deficit as an additional indicator yields a noticeable improvement not only in the State MEP index scores, but also in their rankings, thus providing the evidence of relatively successful attempt by the Indian States in reducing fiscal deficit, in general, and legislating FRBM bill, in particular; and third, a positive significant correlation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and MEP indicates that a State's overall macroeconomic policy performance does matter to attract FDI. Research limitations/implications - Since the DEA models employed in this study ignore the possibility of asymmetric shocks, the MEP results might be questioned in this deterministic setting. However, the study period has been smooth and has not been subject to any major changes in the State economic policies. Therefore, the MEP results might not be susceptible such changes. However, further research is desired on examining the macroeconomic policy performance behavior of Indian States using bootstrapping DEA. Originality/value - None of the past Indian studies were able to give a comprehensive picture concerning the MEP behavior of Indian State economies, since the methodologies adopted in those studies were not suitable to take into consideration all the macro indicators at a time. Therefore, this present study is considered the first of its kind in assessing the MEP index of the Indian State economies by simultaneously considering all the macro indicators.