A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?

摘要

The stubbornly high rate of unemployment in the face of ongoing GDP growth and rising job openings has raised concerns that the level of structural unemployment, or the natural rate of unemployment, has risen over the past few years in the United States. This possibility raises important policy issues since short-run monetary and fiscal stabilization policies are not designed to alleviate structural unemployment and can be costly if misapplied. Our estimates suggest that the natural rate of unemployment has risen from its pre-recession level of 5.0 percent to a value between 5.5 and 6.6 percent, with our preferred estimate lying at the midpoint of approximately 6 percent. This value implies an unemployment gap of over 2.7 percentage points in late 2011, which remains quite high. Thus, even with a higher natural rate of unemployment, considerable slack remains in the labor market.