Assessing the Threat of Terrorists’Use in Their Warfare of Radiological Exposure Devices (REDs) and Dirty Bombs

摘要

In view of the considerable hurdles in developing a weaponized radiological warfare capability, in its cost-benefit analysis a terrorist group might decide that an attack involving such a weapon would generate such an overwhelming military response by the targeted country and its allies that it might destroy the group and its allies, so the overall costs might outweigh any benefits accruing from such an attack. On the other hand, while an organized group might be deterred, a lone actor that is capable of conducting such an attack would be more difficult to prevent, so a lone actor-type attack might be more likely. Finally, as demonstrated by many of the incidents listed in the chronology, an accidental release of radioactive material whether through human error, mechanical breakdown or natural disaster, continues to pose a significant and realistic concern, so appropriate and stringent countermeasures, based on an enterprise-wide security risk management approach, always need to be in place to secure them from such potential breakdowns.