Research and application of the hybrid forecasting model based on secondary denoising and multi-objective optimization for air pollution early warning system

摘要

With the increasing irreversible damage caused by air pollution, an early warning system to send warning information to human beings so that they can avoid more harm caused by air pollution is required. A reliable warning system can provide valuable information to protect mankind from the effects of pollution and can act as a tool that allows regulators to implement corresponding measures to reduce air pollution. However, the previous most valuable research studies were focused on pollution forecasting and the extent to which pollution affects health, and the aim of only a few studies was to analyze pollution from an application perspective and to construct a reasonable early warning system. In this study, an air pollution early warning system was constructed, which comprises two modules: an air pollution forecasting module and an air quality evaluation module. In the forecasting module, two denoising methods and a multi-objective optimization algorithm are integrated into a novel hybrid forecasting model. In the evaluation module, fuzzy synthetic evaluation is used to evaluate air quality objectively. To verify the performance of the proposed early warning system, hourly pollutants concentration data were used in a case study of three metropolises in China and three numeric simulation experiments were conducted. The simulation results show that the forecasting performance of the L-2,L-1 RF-ELM model used in this study is better than the traditional neural network, and the forecasting model proposed in this paper is better than the traditional statistical model ARIMA. Moreover,the early warning system performed well in terms of highly accurate forecasting and accurate evaluation in the three research areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.