Input-output Inoperability Model for the risk analysis of eco-industrial parks

摘要

An Eco-Industrial Park (EIP) is formed by a set of manufacturing and service businesses located together in a bounded geographic area and interconnected in Industrial Symbiosis (IS), aiming at enhancing environmental, economic and social performances of the EIP itself and its individual Industrial Actors (IA). Connections of IA to Critical Infrastructures (CI), such as for electricity and water supply, together with the newly created IS interconnections make EIP vulnerable to disruptive events propagation, whereby a failure in a CI outside EIP may propagate to EIP and its IA in a cascading effect. The interdependencies created by the interconnections of various CI and IS in the EIP should be closely investigated in order to predict the behaviour of the interconnected EIP, to evaluate the risk of disruptive events propagation and propose mitigation solutions. Different approaches exists, for this, requiring different levels of details, model sophistication and complexity, data for parameters estimation. The present paper focuses on the expert-based Input-output Inoperability Model (IIM) and proposes a methodology for its complete deployment on the existing EIP of Kalundborg. The results obtained from the application to this EIP can be used to provide guidance for establishing measures of resilience to disruptive events, in terms of possible technological solutions and adjustment strategies to increase overall EIP resilience. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.