Media Credibility and the Base Rate Fallacy

摘要

The base rate fallacy describes how people rely on exemplars more than on base rates, when making judgments about a population. We provide a test of the base rate fallacy, considering the critiques of the research on the base rate fallacy on theoretical grounds. It is proposed that while trustworthy media outlets will allow readers to believe in anecdotal evidence found in news stories, readers will rely instead on base rates when presented with less trusted sources. Findings indicate that media credibility moderates the use of exemplars, although only among those with high trust in mass media.