A new measure of cross-sectional risk and its empirical implications for portfolio risk management

摘要

Litterman et al. [Litterman, R., Scheinkman, J., Weiss, L., 1991. Volatility and the yield curve. Journal of Fixed Income 1 (June), 49-53] and Engle and Ng [Engle, R.F., Ng, V.K., 1993. Time-varying volatility and the dynamic behavior of the term structure. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25(3), 336-349] provide empirical evidence of a relation between yield curve shape and volatility. This study offers theoretical support for that finding in the general context of cross-sectional time series. We introduce a new risk measure quantifying the link between cross-sectional shape and market risk. A simple econometric procedure allows us to represent the risk experienced by cross-sections over a time period in terms of independent factors reproducing possible cross-sectional deformations. We compare our risk measure to the traditional cross-yield covariance according to their relative performance. Empirical investigation in the US interest rate market shows that (1) cross-shape risk factors outperform cross-yield risk factors (i.e., yield curve level, slope, and convexity) in explaining the market risk of yield curve dynamics; (2) hedging multiple liabilities against cross-shape risk delivers superior trading strategies compared to those stemming from cross-yield risk management.