Optimization Approach to Space Weather Prediction

摘要

On the basis of assumption about a weakly turbulent state of the magnetospheric plasma the model of the nonlinear "black box" for prediction of its state is proposed. It is also assumed that a weakly turbulent state of the environment is caused by the influence of the solar wind velocity and southern component of the interplanetary magnetic field on the magnetospheric plasma. Such state of the plasma can be described by local Lyapunov exponents that characterize the sensitivity of the dynamics of magnetospheric plasma to perturbations of the magnetospheric field and are widely used for the analysis of observed data. The nonlinear discrete dynamic model of the state of the magnetospheric plasma, based on the decomposition of nonlinear perturbations of the magnetospheric field in a series by correlation functions, is proposed. This model allows to predict behaviour of the Dst-index (or a state of the space weather) on the time interval of about 100 hours under the conditions of the absence of anomalous disturbances in the solar wind.