Nonconformance probability of an air quality index

摘要

Air pollution is one of the most important global environmental issues. Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently using an Air Quality Index (AQI) to measure and monitor its national air quality. The main objective of this study is to assess the air quality per hour every month in Taichung City of Taiwan from 2014 to 2016 based on the nonconformance probability of the AQI index. The nonconformance probability is defined as the probability that a characteristic of interest falls outside of an acceptance region. A lower confidence bound for the nonconformance probability is applied to test whether the AQI index value exceeds a warning threshold, and then the government could issue warnings according to the decision made by such statistical inference. An unbalanced two-way random effects model is presented for fitting the AQI index values. We evaluate three different lower confidence bound construction methods, including a t-based, an adjusted t-based and a generalized pivotal quantity (GPQ) based methods, through a detailed simulation study. Finally, a hybrid method of the t-based and the adjusted t-based estimators is recommended for practical use.