Minimum Area Confidence Set Optimality for Confidence Bands in Simple Linear Regression

摘要

The average width of a simultaneous confidence band has been used by several authors (e.g., Naiman and Piegorsch) as a criterion for the comparison of different confidence bands. In this article the area of the confidence set that corresponds to a confidence band is used as a new criterion. For simple linear regression, comparisons have been carried out under this new criterion between hyperbolic bands, two-segment bands, and three-segment bands, which include constant width bands as special cases. It is found that if one requires a confidence band over the whole range of the covariate, then the best confidence band is given by the Working and Hotelling hyperbolic band. Furthermore, if one needs a confidence band over a finite interval of the covariate, then a restricted hyperbolic band can again be recommended, although a three-segment band may be very slightly superior in certain cases.