Real-time identification of traffic conditions prone to injury and non-injury crashes on freeways using genetic programming

摘要

This study applied the genetic programming (GP) model to identify traffic conditions prone to injury and property-damage-only (PDO) crashes in different traffic states on freeways. It was found that the traffic conditions prone to injury and PDO crashes can be classified into a high-speed and a low-speed traffic state. The random forest (RF) analyses were conducted to identify the contributing factors to injury and PDO crashes in these two traffic states. Four separate GP models were then developed to link the risks of injury and PDO crashes in two traffic states to the variables selected by the RF. An overall GP model was also developed for the combined dataset. It was found that the separate GP models that considered different traffic states and crash severity provided better predictive performance than the overall model, and the traffic flow variables that affected injury and PDO crashes were quite different across different traffic states. The proposed GP models were also compared with the traditional logistic regression models. The results suggested that the GP models outperformed the logistic regression models in terms of the prediction accuracy. More specifically, the GP models increased the prediction accuracy of injury crashes by 10.7% and 8.0% in the low-speed and high-speed traffic states. For PDO crashes, the GP models increased the prediction accuracy by 7.4% and 6.0% in the low-speed and high-speed traffic states. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.