Japan as a Global Ordinary Power: Its Current Phase

摘要

Japan's self-defining foreign policy role has been evolving on the basis of alliance with the United States since 1945. The author argues that depending on the changing terms of alliance with the United States, Japan has been adjusting its role roughly every 15 years: domestic contestation over alliance (1945 - 1960), free rider or Yoshida doctrine in practice (1960 - 1975), systemic supporter (1975 - 1990), global civilian power (1990 - 2005) and global ordinary power (2005 - 2020). In this article the author argues that the three key conditions for global hegemony, military, currency and demographic hegemony, will be met by the United States to varying degrees until the second quarter of this century. The author speculates that Japan's foreign policy role will evolve on the assumption of a continuing United States leadership role, albeit with far more dependence on market conditions and power calculations abroad.