Islamic State IED strike on road to Damascus threatens supply route

摘要

The Islamic State conducted a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack against Syrian government positions in Umm al-Tababir, near Al-Furqlus, 40 kilometres east of the city of Horns, on 9 April, killing 17 Syrian government soldiers. The group has previously conducted attacks against government forces in energy fields in the area, such as Shaer, and is likely to push harder into the province of Horns, especially if it continues to lose ground in Iraq. Ideologically, the attack will help maintain the group's narrative of regular victories, and militarily it will threaten Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's control of the M5 main supply route from Damascus to Horns. Moreover, it will take advantage of the US-led coalition's concern not to be seen to be providing air cover to Assad's forces, reducing the pressure on the Islamic State from airstrikes, and it is likely to help the group rally potential supporters from among existing militants in Horns province to its side, given that they have been under constant pressure from the Syrian government for the past two years.