Short-Range Intercity Traffic Forecasting Using Econometric Techniques

摘要

There are well-developed procedures for preparing 10- and 20-year traffic volume forecasts to aid in highway planning and design. There has been much less attention paid to short-range traffic forecasting of one- to five-year horizons. The Oklahoma Turnpike Authority (OTA) needs short-range traffic forecasts to comply with bond covenants requiring annual revenue forecasts. The OTA also uses short-range traffic forecasts for personnel and maintenance scheduling. To enhance its short-range forecasting capabilities, the OTA commissioned an investigation of econometric modeling techniques that might be applied to traffic forecasting. This article describes the results of that investigation.