Short-Range Local Forecasting of Coastal Summer Stratus by Statistical Techniques - A Pilot Study

摘要

Two different regression techniques applied to short range (24 hr or less) forecasting are examined at four naval air stations on the California coast. Regression estimates of event probabilities (REEP) was compared to logistic regression (LR) in forecasting summer stratus at Moffett NAS; REEP also was evaluated operationally at Moffett during the summer of 1982. The skill of the LR technique was examined at North Island, Miramar and San Nicolas NAS in Southern California for the stratus ceiling forecast. The results of these evaluations indicated equal skills for REEP and LR. The REEP operational evaluation at Moffett NAS showed a level of skill equivalent to that possessed by the most experienced forecasters. Either of these techniques would provide valuable forecasting capability for certain forecast parameters when applied to remote areas where archived data are available but little or no local forecasting experience exists. (Author)