Artificial Intelligence, Robots, and Work: Is This Time Different?

摘要

Over the past few years, there has been increasing public discussion about the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and robots on work. However, despite the attention given to the issue, there has not been much progress on understanding whether or not AI and robots deserve such special treatment. Specifically, are AI and robots just like past technologies, causing shifts in the workplace but leaving the fundamental structure of work in place? Or are they unique in some way that suggests this time is different? On the technology side, the discussion often focuses on surprising examples of tasks that AI and robots can now carry out, but without putting those examples in perspective. How do they compare to the full range of tasks at work? On the economics side, the discussion often focuses on analyses of past changes caused by technology, but without demonstrating that they apply to the question at hand. How do we know that AI and robots will affect work in the same way that technologies have in the past? Neither of these approaches moves the argument beyond a simple repetition of opposing conclusions that these new technologies either will or will not cause big changes to work.