Simulation analysis on the public opinion factors and public panic degree under the background of spreading sudden disaster information by new media

摘要

Based on the analysis of the transmission and evolution mechanism of the sudden disaster risk, this paper fully considers the influence of public opinion after a disaster and uses the improved individual interaction model to transform public opinion information into public risk panic. In addition, according to the characteristics of panic, this paper puts forward the corresponding emergency rescue measures to reduce the risk of social unrest. The Matlab-ABM simulation results show that at the early stage of a disaster, the degree of public panic risk evolves with the number of interactions between individuals and the deepening of risk awareness. Further, different disaster levels also lead to varying influences on the panic risk. Positive information and negative information will produce more significant distinctions in the degree of public risk panic. The simulation results can provide decision support for relevant government departments to restrain the fermentation of sudden public disasters.